Start of 2025

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After the worst El Niño ever reported of 2023/2024, we anticipated more favorable climate of the La Niña to finally come that would bring more long waited rainfall. According to the report by the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March – May 2025.

In 2024, the industry closed the year with 650k tons for fruit processed, less than 680k in 2023 despite the early rainy season in Thailand from May that lasted till November. The amount of rain could not revive pineapple plants that were affected by drought and extremely heat in the first half of 2024. Eventually, the winter season started very late in December.

 The extreme cold and heavy rain in northern hemisphere brought cold fronts from China to Thailand. We experienced one of the coldest months of December and January in the recent history. Coldness brought dryness that there was no rainfall for around 3 months. This affected the production from plantation and fruit price increased due to strong demand from the industry. From about 11.50 THB/kg in December, price continued to increase with the most recent price of near 20.00 THB/kg.

The lower production in Philippines and Indonesia contribute to the higher market price for canned pineapple and pineapple juice concentrate, that in turn fuels higher demand in Thailand and fruit price to the record high. The cycle is no way near ending but only to deteriorate.

The initial forecast for 2025 of 830k tons is now revised to 710k tons. With the prediction of ENSO-neutral likely during March – May 2025, we expect the weather to be dry and hot as Thailand enters the summer season in March. The natural blooming from the cold temperature in December/January that would be harvested in May/June may be affected with lack of rain. Cycle of poor crop and high price would seemingly repeat itself once more this year.

February 25, 2025