El Niño Watch

>>Download<< PDF Edition El Niño Watch

This year, Thailand is experiencing extreme heat throughout the country. In the pineapple major growing areas of Chonburi and Rayong, recorded temperature of above 40 c (100 F) while in Petchburi and Prachuab Kirihan even as high as 46 C (114 F). As a result, tonnage processed by canneries for first half 2023 is reduced as much as 32% compared to 2022.

Now the official start of El Niño is underway, according to the US Climate Prediction Center, and the conditions are projected to intensify in the months ahead.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.

 “Experts are warning Thailand to brace for unusually low average rainfall that may lead to drought as a result of the El Niño weather pattern.” (Bangkok Post 16 June 2023). Farmers are not able to do forcing of plants. This is a big concern and will likely affect the total output for 2023. Will the supply be curtailed to 800k or less for this year? The shortage has come in the time of high production costs; tinplate is on a rise, energy cost remains high and minimum wage is looming to increase.

“Combined with more extreme weather and hotter temperatures due to accelerated climate change, the stage is now set for the world’s costliest El Niño cycle since meteorologists started keeping track. It also adds to the dreaded risk of stagflation, in which inflation stays high even as the economy contracts.” (Bloomberg 13 June 2023)

June 25, 2023