Weather Forecast Models suggested the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average but gradually warming to neutral in the 2nd quarter of 2018. The Models indicated around 60% chance of La Niña conditions to last up to the February-April 2018 season

According to the official long-term prediction of the Meteorological Department’s Climate Centre, the ENSO condition will be a mild La Nina during the first three months of this year but the condition is predicted to return to a neutral stage by the end of March.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The majority of models predict La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.

The tropical Pacific Ocean is in La Niña-like conditions with cooler than average sea surface temperature. Atmospheric indicators of El Niño/La Niña are showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. Models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average with more than 60% chance of La Niña conditions continuing up to the first quarter of 2018.

Atmospheric indicators of El Niño/La Niña are broadly within neutral at the moment. Models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool.

For the tropical Pacific, models indicate that the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies will continue to be negative for the remaining part of 2017. For this period, expert consensus favors weak La Nina conditions to continue. On-going La Nina conditions are expected to be short-lived and to return to neutral conditions by first quarter of 2018.

The majority of models favor El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - neutral through the remainder of 2017. However, some chance for El Niño (15-20%) or La Niña (25-30%) remains during the winter.

During June, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – neutral continued, although equatorial sea surface temperatures remained above average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. However, more than half of the models favor ENSO – neutral through the remainder of 2017.