The majority of models in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS plume predict El Niño to form during the fall and continue through the winter. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance). The ENSO Alert System Status now is shown El Niño Watch.

The majority of models in CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society plume continue to predict the onset of El Niño sometime during the Northern Hemisphere fall and continuing through the winter. There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to 65- 70% during winter 2018-19. The ENSO Alert System Status now is shown El Niño Watch.

The Earthquakes in Hawaii from eruption of Mount Kilauea and Mauna Loa have been winding down in small increments and the Hurricane Chris in North America has threatened the Atlantic Coast and the deadly wild fires in California have been raging which were shown some signs of climate changes.

In July, the Climate Prediction Center in conjunction with the National Centers of Environmental Prediction, the National Weather Service and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society determined that although neutral condition is favorable through the summer 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere, there is 65 percent chance for El Niño to appear during fall and about a 70 percent chance during winter of 2018-2019. Therefore, an El Niño Watch was place in effect.

Majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) - neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.

Most of the atmospheric models indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean SST anomalies will continue to warm with more than 60% chance of neutral conditions for the May-July season in progress and up to the Jun-August season.

SAICO Sustainability Report 2017

NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted that La nina is expected to transition to ENSO Neutral during April – May, with ENSO-Neutral than likely (greater than 50% chance) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018. Also, as predicted by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) 2-Year prediction, the weak La Nina has already transitioned to Neutral Conditions – much sooner than predicted by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.